See the numbers.
Understand the decision.
A growing distributor was selling more, but keeping less. Here is what a closer look at its finances revealed.
Illustrative case · Fictional business · Synthetic data
vs previous year
vs previous year
vs previous year
From a financial question
to a clearer next step.
Explore the analysis behind three decisions facing the owner.
Why did profit fall?
| Profit & loss | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €1,200k | €1,380k |
| Cost of goods sold | €780k | €966k |
| Gross profit | €420k | €414k |
| Gross margin | 35% | 30% |
| Operating expenses | €270k | €300k |
| Operating profit | €150k | €114k |
View the supporting calculations
Product margins remain 20% for the lower-margin category and 45% for the premium category. Changing the revenue mix from 40% / 60% to 60% / 40% reduces weighted margin from 35% to 30%.
Revenue growth adds €63k at the previous margin. The mix change removes €69k. Higher operating expenses remove another €30k. Net operating profit change: −€36k.
Where did the cash go?
| Annual cash movement | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Opening cash | €80k |
| Operating profit | +€114k |
| Tax paid | −€20k |
| Extra cash in receivables & inventory | −€90k |
| Increase in supplier payables | +€6k |
| Equipment purchases | −€50k |
| Closing cash | €40k |
View balances and assumptions
Receivables: €150k → €175k. Inventory: €100k → €165k. Supplier payables: €80k → €86k. Overdue and slow-moving amounts are subsets of closing balances.
Simplified annual cash reconciliation assumes no depreciation, borrowing, owner distributions or other adjustments. Recovery depends on collectability and timing.
Can the business commit €45k?
| 13-week cash forecast | Scenario |
|---|---|
| Starting cash after initial decision | €40k |
| End of week 4 | €23k |
| End of week 8 | €12k |
| End of week 13 | €34k |
| Lowest cash during forecast | €10k |
Illustrative minimum cash buffer: €20k
View the forecast assumptions
Forecast begins after FY2025 closes. Base net weekly cash flows (€k): −5, −4, −3, −5, −4, −6, −3, +2, +4, +3, +4, +5, +6. No new financing is assumed.
Recoveries are additional to the base forecast. Stock recovery assumes conversion at book value without additional costs or profit. No additional expansion earnings are modelled. Detailed forecasting is an additional service beyond the basic diagnostic.
A demonstration of the analysis—not an achieved client result.